Germany, Russia Undermine Bush's Plans to Assist Bosnia

President Bush's desire to go to the aid of beleaguered Bosniafaces trouble in Germany and Russia. That may delay Bush's plans toarm Serbia's enemies and start a "no-fly" zone.

Private word to Bush conveyed Chancellor Helmut Kohl's positionthat the United States can expect no German help for harshersanctions against Serbia.

Germany's break with Western policy was followed by Russia'sshocking statement Monday denouncing UN resolutions against Serbia,which have been supported by President Boris Yeltsin.

Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev, under fire from hard-liners inthe Congress of Peoples' Deputies, made just such a threat in aStockholm speech Monday that he later claimed was a ruse to show whatwill happen if he and Yeltsin fall. He said that Russia "demands theremoval" of anti-Serbian measures and that if the United Nationsrefuses, Russia will take whatever action it wants "in defense of ourinterests." Kozyrev pledged President Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia,now No. 1 on the West's most-hated list, that he could count on thesupport of "great Russia."

This leaves the Bush administration and the Stockholm meeting onMonday of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe in thedark, not knowing how to interpret Russian policy in the Balkanconflict. Middle-level administration officials argued strongly thatBush should not allow Russia's indecipherable posture to affect whatthe United States now wants to do.

But the White House is reacting more cautiously, haunted by thenightmare that the United States might tip the splintered Russiangovernment away from Yeltsin and into the hands of hard-liners.

Germany's reluctance and Russia's schizophrenia weaken thestrength of last week's signals that a decision by the West to gettough with Serbia is in the works. The European Community and NATOappeared to be moving toward a policy with teeth, and so didSecretary of State Lawrence S. Eagleburger.

But powerful adversaries of Eagleburger's inside the Bushadministration cringe at the possibilities. They warn that U.S. airdefense of the no-fly zone or heavy arming of Croatian and Bosnianforces would bring Russian defenders into action.

It is no secret that Russian nationalists were recruitingpro-Serbian Russian volunteers to fight in the former Yugoslavia longbefore Kozyrev's Monday speech. Now, they can be expected to step upRussian intervention efforts on behalf of Serbia.

Bush still has five weeks in the Oval Office. The presidentmay end his tenure by moving against the Serbian menace.

Evans & Novak are nationally syndicated columnists of theChicago Sun-Times.